Forex daily technical analysis -

EUR-USD

The pair is defying the direction of technical analysis for the rest of last week due to strong fundamental impact on the market. As a result it follows the down trend direction way too early where it should be undergoing correction process between 1.3164 and 1.3711 support resistance level.

As of today it the pair direction is still hanging in the balance without clear direction where it should go. The possibility of moving up or down is still unknown as fundamental influence can easily the market into turbulence. By rights based on technical perspective the pair should be going down gradually at small scale retracement at every twist and turn.
Intermediate Trend (Weekly time frame) - Upside correction
Long trend (Monthly time frame) - Down or bearish trend
Today direction - Unknown (due to fundamental disturbance)

GBP-USD

Likewise the pound-dollar pair also following the same course of direction as eur-dollar during last week movement but in a smaller scale. Unlike eur-usd it is only having a minor correction and still having the chances of moving up to continue intermediate terms retracement.
As of today still we cannot determine the clear direction as fundamental factors i.e. economic data release can affect the movement in any direction. However based on technical perspective we the market should be moving down to 1.4603 level and then continue the intermediate term process upside.
Intermediate Trend (Weekly time frame) - Upside correction
Long trend (Monthly time frame) - Down or bearish trend
Today direction - Unknown (due to fundamental disturbance)

AUD-USD

The only pair between that going the right direction for retracement is this australian dollar-us dollar pair. It follows correctly the intermediate correction process for the rest of last week. You can see this as the market moving upside following the slow stochastic. On weekly time frame candlestick is getting smaller indicating the market is weakening to move further upside. However we will never want to underestimate an overbought situation if the fundamental factors affect the market so much.
As of today we expect correction downward to 0.7142. Or if not then it could be still moving upside to go for overbought.
Intermediate Trend (weekly time frame) - upside intermediate correction
Long Trend (Monthly time frame) - down or bearish trend

Forex daily technical analysis

EUR-USD

The pair is defying the direction of technical analysis for the rest of last week due to strong fundamental impact on the market. As a result it follows the down trend direction way too early where it should be undergoing correction process between 1.3164 and 1.3711 support resistance level.

As of today it the pair direction is still hanging in the balance without clear direction where it should go. The possibility of moving up or down is still unknown as fundamental influence can easily the market into turbulence. By rights based on technical perspective the pair should be going down gradually at small scale retracement at every twist and turn.
Intermediate Trend (Weekly time frame) - Upside correction
Long trend (Monthly time frame) - Down or bearish trend
Today direction - Unknown (due to fundamental disturbance)

GBP-USD

Likewise the pound-dollar pair also following the same course of direction as eur-dollar during last week movement but in a smaller scale. Unlike eur-usd it is only having a minor correction and still having the chances of moving up to continue intermediate terms retracement.
As of today still we cannot determine the clear direction as fundamental factors i.e. economic data release can affect the movement in any direction. However based on technical perspective we the market should be moving down to 1.4603 level and then continue the intermediate term process upside.
Intermediate Trend (Weekly time frame) - Upside correction
Long trend (Monthly time frame) - Down or bearish trend
Today direction - Unknown (due to fundamental disturbance)

AUD-USD

The only pair between that going the right direction for retracement is this australian dollar-us dollar pair. It follows correctly the intermediate correction process for the rest of last week. You can see this as the market moving upside following the slow stochastic. On weekly time frame candlestick is getting smaller indicating the market is weakening to move further upside. However we will never want to underestimate an overbought situation if the fundamental factors affect the market so much.
As of today we expect correction downward to 0.7142. Or if not then it could be still moving upside to go for overbought.
Intermediate Trend (weekly time frame) - upside intermediate correction
Long Trend (Monthly time frame) - down or bearish trend

Forex AUD-USD Technical Analysis

The current scenario of AUD-USD situation is the result of its stubborn long-term bullish effect. The trend was moving up for long years and it shows no stopping sign until it goes overbought. As pay back time came the pair now is in the possession of the bear and the worst case, it is extremely oversold.

At this extreme oversold high certainty of reversal is ultimately imminent, because the big money is held in the hands of the few. As emotions starting to build up they will close their position to harvest profits, which may result in the market creating rapid reversal. Just watch out for monthly slow stochastic movement, if there is any sign to upward direction for this pair. Some others are already anxiously waiting for the big reversal that make up at least minimum total of 500 pips or more.

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AUD-USD Technical Analysis (31 March 2009)

As far as bearish trend is concerned, in the long-term perspective the AUD-USD is always bearish at least for now and perhaps for another year based on Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator downward direction in monthly time frame. In the intermediate trend we can see it is currently having correction and resistance activities going on within the range 0.7133 (upper bollinger band) and 0.6169 (bottom bollinger band).

Despite of that concerns, what matters most to us is the intraday or short-term trading where we should make money. So where is going along this month? in order to answer this question i would like to refer back to my previous post in the past about candlestick chart counting.Counting candlestick, Candlestick counting post analysis, EUR-USD post analysis, EUR-USD Technical Analysis.

Based on the observation and back testing results that i have done in the past using candlestick counting we will use it to predict the overall movement of the AUD-USD along the month of April until it reaches the end of the month.
Alright now that we see 1 piece of white candlestick is already formed at the end of March. Since the slow stochastic in the monthly time frame is already iniatially moving upwards there for we expect another 1 piece of white candlestick will be formed again until the end month of April. We will test again the validity of this candlestick counting theory for this month.

If this theory is true, so if the if market is expected to move upside to form another white candlestick until the end month of April. Therefore we can estimate the movement of market within weekly and daily time frame as well. So whatever comes down during the period of weekly or daily must go up and this is valid throughout the month of April.

Let's observe and give me your feedback what is your opinion on this.

Forex daily technical analysis - 13 April 2009

EUR-USD

The pair is defying the direction of technical analysis for the rest of last week due to strong fundamental impact on the market. As a result it follows the down trend direction way too early where it should be undergoing correction process between 1.3164 and 1.3711 support resistance level.

As of today it the pair direction is still hanging in the balance without clear direction where it should go. The possibility of moving up or down is still unknown as fundamental influence can easily the market into turbulence. By rights based on technical perspective the pair should be going down gradually at small scale retracement at every twist and turn.
Intermediate Trend (Weekly time frame) - Upside correction
Long trend (Monthly time frame) - Down or bearish trend
Today direction - Unknown (due to fundamental disturbance)

GBP-USD

Likewise the pound-dollar pair also following the same course of direction as eur-dollar during last week movement but in a smaller scale. Unlike eur-usd it is only having a minor correction and still having the chances of moving up to continue intermediate terms retracement.
As of today still we cannot determine the clear direction as fundamental factors i.e. economic data release can affect the movement in any direction. However based on technical perspective we the market should be moving down to 1.4603 level and then continue the intermediate term process upside.
Intermediate Trend (Weekly time frame) - Upside correction
Long trend (Monthly time frame) - Down or bearish trend
Today direction - Unknown (due to fundamental disturbance)

AUD-USD

The only pair between that going the right direction for retracement is this australian dollar-us dollar pair. It follows correctly the intermediate correction process for the rest of last week. You can see this as the market moving upside following the slow stochastic. On weekly time frame candlestick is getting smaller indicating the market is weakening to move further upside. However we will never want to underestimate an overbought situation if the fundamental factors affect the market so much.
As of today we expect correction downward to 0.7142. Or if not then it could be still moving upside to go for overbought.
Intermediate Trend (weekly time frame) - upside intermediate correction
Long Trend (Monthly time frame) - down or bearish trend

AUD-USD post analysis

Remember in the beginning of April i was analyzing that AUD-USD will at least form 2 pieces of white candlestick on the major correction. And this analysis was valid throughout all the month of April. Now you can see the result yourself.

Previous Analysis: AUD-USD Technical Analysis (31 March 2009)
Here is the previous candlestick chart in the beginning of April 1, 2009

Below is the new chart with another white candlestick formation at the end of April 29, 2009.


Now you can think about how effective is this system, at least showing some accuracy over a month time.

AUD-USD Technical Analysis (24 May 2009)

AUD-USD recent upward movement is one special case that we cannot predict in forex. By right based on weekly slow stochastic and candlestick counting (weekly time frame) it should move down, but in reality it chose to move up (overbought). This is where many traders can fail if they rely too much on their technical indicators and strategies to predict the market direction.

Even though this phenomena happens occasionally but the impact is like losing frequently. At this point you have no idea if the market will continue the overbought or reverse soon. Throughout my long-time observation i have encountered many situations like this and despite of my familiarity with it still i failed to avoid losses when it happens. This is because i just cannot predict when exactly the market will move.

Therefore sometimes i just use my guts feeling to trade and usually close my position if it is not moving according to my expectation after a certain period of time.