Greece to receive first batch of financial aid today!!

BBC News report that today will be the first batch of the financial to Greece which amounted of €20 billion euros from the total of €110 billion euros. Partly €14.5 billion from the Euro zone member states and the rest from the IMF.

Here comes again our main concern of the impact of the monetary aid may stir temporary turbulence on the EUR-USD trend movement. Despite of all the indicators signal support for long-term bearish continuation, this fundamental data can twist the market for significant correction. If the correction is very strong there might be a shift in direction from bearish to sideways.

Our temporary analysis goes as follow:

Daily Time Frame:
MACD = Down
Stochastic = Down
Bollinger Band = Bottom
Summary = Support bearish continuation

Weekly Time Frame:
MACD = Down
Stochastic = Down
Bollinger Band = Bottom oversold
Summary = Support bearish continuation and also correction due to oversold

Monthly Time Frame:
MACD = Down
Stochastic = Down
Bollinger Band = Bottom
Summary = Support bearish continuation

Chart formation: Double top support bearish continuation in the long-term (monthly time frame) chart.
Fundamental: Euro zone - Greece financial aid: Either strong or permanent correction.

forex EUR-JPY Technical Analysis

The Euro-Jpy pair has now come to the moment of truth. As i analyzed before sooner or later the pair will move down brutally because it was keep going up defying the rule of technical analysis. And today you can see the result of that as the EUR-JPY is already down as expected. The only thing which i didn't expected was the time of when it should fall because no one can predict that.

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Forex EUR-JPY Technical Analysis

As expected in the previous post that the pair of EUR-JPY will eventually fall no matter without question. The only thing that we will never know is a matter of when it is going to happen. Now it is already happen it fall like a disgrace from heaven above as global financial crisis is adding the ingredients of disaster to the Euro currency.

This phenomena is simply explain by the simple mathematics of moving average where a currency trend will eventually stop moving at certain point following the cycle of economic ups and downs.

See the picture below showing a sharp fall of the EUR-JPY pair.

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forex EUR-USD Technical Analysis

As i have discussed any interference from the fundamental data may result in major correction of the pair. And today you can see the result of that as it broke the resistance line of 1.2881 then move further upside to make intermediate correction. This scenario is influence by the slight improvement in the European economic data and one bad data from the US zone as follow;

GBP Nationwide HPI m/m
-1.4% Actual
-1.5% Previous

EUR German Unemployment Change
-26K Actual
-29K Previous

EUR Consumer Confidence
-24 Actual
-19 Previous

USD Advance GDP q/q
-0.3% Actual
2.8% Previous

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EUR-USD Technical Analysis - 05 February 2010

The pair keeps coming down breaking every resistant level that is set by the previous movement and in fact now it seems to be in minor oversold position. At this point everyone is wondering when it is going to stop falling down and make the correction move.

Time and again from the experience of the market movement prove that it might be stopping and making correction at the time when the Non-Farm Payroll economic data release today at 9.30 PM (+8 GMT Our Local Time). This analysis is based on previous historical experience the market will continue to move in its trending direction when there is significant news is ahead of it. Until the news is over then it might be corrected or continue again.

We will try to proof this theory again today see if it is working again as the way it used to be.!!

Greece to receive first batch of financial aid today!!

BBC News report that today will be the first batch of the financial to Greece which amounted of €20 billion euros from the total of €110 billion euros. Partly €14.5 billion from the Euro zone member states and the rest from the IMF.

Here comes again our main concern of the impact of the monetary aid may stir temporary turbulence on the EUR-USD trend movement. Despite of all the indicators signal support for long-term bearish continuation, this fundamental data can twist the market for significant correction. If the correction is very strong there might be a shift in direction from bearish to sideways.

Our temporary analysis goes as follow:

Daily Time Frame:
MACD = Down
Stochastic = Down
Bollinger Band = Bottom
Summary = Support bearish continuation

Weekly Time Frame:
MACD = Down
Stochastic = Down
Bollinger Band = Bottom oversold
Summary = Support bearish continuation and also correction due to oversold

Monthly Time Frame:
MACD = Down
Stochastic = Down
Bollinger Band = Bottom
Summary = Support bearish continuation

Chart formation: Double top support bearish continuation in the long-term (monthly time frame) chart.
Fundamental: Euro zone - Greece financial aid: Either strong or permanent correction.